The following article is an opinion piece and reflects the views of only the author and not those of AllOnGeorgia.
By: Ken Herron, Sr.
When I have been asked if the Democrats in the House of Representatives were going to impeach the president I have always answered yes. They have a majority of the members and a majority vote is all that is required to pass a bill of impeachment.
With the recent actions by Speaker Pelosi, she may not have the votes for an impeachment bill. Just because a Congressperson is a Democrat does not guarantee that they will vote for impeachment. There has not been a published poll of how the Democrat members of the house will vote. The Democrats gained 37 seats that had previously been Republican in the 2018 election. All of these are first-term members of Congress and they know they are going to have strong opposition in the 2020 election. At least 31 of these were elected in districts that voted for President Trump in 2016. The present breakdown of the House of Representatives is that the Democrats have 235 votes, the Republicans have 199 votes, and there is one independent that usually votes with the Democrats.
There have been several impeachment bills offered but Speaker Pelosi would not allow any of them to go to a vote. There may be several of the senior Democrats that do not want to vote for impeachment. The Democrats control the Congressional delegates in 23 states while the Republicans control the Congressional delegates in 27 states. There may be Democrat in the House of Representatives who are from Republican majority states. They might be hesitant to vote to impeach the president. If Speaker Pelosi was certain that she had the votes the present committee hearings would have started with a vote of the complete House of Representatives. If the Democrats have the majority vote they can impeach the president for just about any reason including chewing gum in public.
It appears that they hope to turn up new evidence in these committee hearings that will convince all of the Democrats to vote for impeachment. It has been some time since we have heard any new comments about Russia. After four investigations there was no evidence that President Trump was involved in any way with Russia.
The present bone of contention is the whistleblower who claims that President Trump was trying to force the president of Ukraine to dig up dirt on Joe Biden. The possibility is great that this entire event was created by the Democrats to have a reason for the committee inquiry. President Trump’s record of the telephone call has been given to the committee and there is nothing in the record that implies pressure on the Ukraine President. The Ukraine President has since stated that he intends to rid the Ukraine of corruption and this was one of the areas he intended to investigate anyway. So far the Democrats have not found a valid charge that they can use for impeachment.
If the House of Representatives passes an impeachment bill, there is not a possibility that the Senate will remove President Trump from office. In the Senate it takes a two thirds majority to pass an impeachment bill which is 66 votes. The Democrats have 46 Senators and two independents that usually vote with them for a total of 48 votes. The Republicans have 52 votes in the Senate. It would take 18 Republicans voting to impeach the president for him to be removed from office. This will not happen.
In 2020 the Republicans have 9 Senators up for reelection. The Democrats will have 24 Senators up for reelection. The Democrats will have to spend money to defend 24 Senators while the Republicans only have to defend 9 Senators. On the other hand Democrats will only have to attack 9 Republican Senators while the Republicans must attack 24 Democratic Senators. It is thought by many experts that the witness Adam Schiff is calling the whistleblower is not a whistleblower at all. Many believe that this person is a paid Democrat witness who is saying the things that Adam Schiff has instructed him to say. If the Republican members of the committee that is headed by Adam Schiff were able to ask this person some serious questions the truth would come out. Adam Schiff has issued subpoenas to many in the State Department and other executive branches staff to testify at the Democrat run impeachment inquiry. Because the House of Representatives did not make this an official inquiry by having the entire body of the House of Representatives to vote, they are not following the standard procedures.
Precedent has been set that inquiries connected to impeachment must allow the alternate party to have the power of subpoena and legal representation to challenge the accusations made by the Democrats. This also would guarantee that all of the testimony would be made public. Adam Schiff is giving out small portions of the testimony that favor his position. President Trump has advised Congressman Schiff that no one in the executive department will be permitted to testify in his inquiry.
If the Democrats wish to make this an official inquiry on impeachment, they must have a full House of Representatives vote and allow the Republicans to have equal voice and equal authority in the operation of the committee. The Republicans are convinced that with the current economic situation there is no way that President Trump will not be reelected.
Overconfidence is a dangerous position for either party to use as their anchor. In the 2016 election the Democrats were overconfident and could not believe there was any way that Hillary would not be elected. Republicans must stay confident and never slow down from their grassroots work and their contributions to the candidate.