Clay Fuller Elected in GA-14: A Closer Look at the Margins

Georgia’s 14th Congressional District has just elected former district attorney Clay Fuller to serve the remainder of former congresswoman Greene’s term. In the March 10th jungle primary special election to fill the unexpired term, Democrat Shawn Harris finished first with 37.34% compared to Fuller’s 34.87%. Subsequently, Fuller proved to be victorious garnering 55.90% to Harris’s 44.10% in the runoff. Regardless, this result is an underperformance for Republicans in one of the most conservative districts in the nation. A combination of low voter turnout and an incumbent Republican president can certainly be attributed to the results.

Below are the margins from the April 7th runoff election compared to the March 10th special election and 2024 General. Turnout increased for the runoff by 11.67% to 129,334 voters from the 115,820 that turned out on March 10th. In the 2024 General, 378,205 voters turned out for a current 65.80% decrease.

 

GA-14 04/07: R+11.80

GA-14 03/10: R+19.86

GA-14 2024: R+28.74

Leftward Shift from 03/10: D+8.06

Leftward Shift from 2024: D+16.94

 

Catoosa 04/07: R+28.68

Catoosa 03/10: R+35.38

Catoosa 2024: R+45.46

Leftward Shift from 03/10: D+6.70

Leftward Shift from 2024: D+16.78

 

Chattooga 04/07: R+39.62

Chattooga 03/10: R+47.39

Chattooga 2024: R+52.02

Leftward Shift from 03/10: D+7.77

Leftward Shift from 2024: D+12.40

 

Cobb 04/07: D+15.26

Cobb 03/10: D+8.07

Cobb 2024: R+2.72

Leftward Shift from 03/10: D+7.19

Leftward Shift from 2024: D+17.98

 

Dade 04/07: R+37.60

Dade 03/10: R+49.90

Dade 2024: R+57.06

Leftward Shift from 03/10: D+12.30

Leftward Shift from 2024: D+19.46

 

Floyd 04/07: R+12.32

Floyd 03/10: R+17.09

Floyd 2024: R+32.86

Leftward Shift from 03/10: D+4.77

Leftward Shift from 2024: D+20.54

 

Murray 04/07: R+51.76

Murray 03/10: R+56.76

Murray 2024: R+62.98

Leftward Shift from 03/10: D+5.00

Leftward Shift from 2024: D+11.22

 

Paulding 04/07: R+1.08

Paulding 03/10: R+12.35

Paulding 2024: R+18.88

Leftward Shift from 03/10: D+11.27

Leftward Shift from 2024: D+17.80

 

Polk 04/07: R+38.67

Polk 03/10: R+40.30

Polk 2024: R+54.26

Leftward Shift from 03/10: D+1.63

Leftward Shift from 2024: D+15.59

 

Walker 04/07: R+34.78

Walker 03/10: R+42.74

Walker 2024: R+48.94

Leftward Shift from 03/10: D+7.96

Leftward Shift from 2024: D+14.16

 

Whitfield 04/07: R+15.02

Whitfield 03/10: R+18.77

Whitfield 2024: R+32.24

Leftward Shift from 03/10: D+3.75

Leftward Shift from 2024: D+17.22

 

These margins do not necessarily mean that the district has moved this far to the left as only 35% of the total 2024 electorate turned out. In fact, it almost certainly has not. However, it should signal to elected Republicans that various issues need to be addressed and low propensity voters need to turnout in November as they were in 2024.